Track record · closed signal

Chart Industries, Inc. (GTLS) — closed signal from September 25, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 24, 2025 — +3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GTLS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$199.89 Published $209.88 Target $205.96 Window close $206.50 Peak
$198.00 – $202.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$199.89Published — price the day we called it
$209.88Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$206.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$205.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 66% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+3.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$205.96
last close inside the window, ended December 24, 2025
Peak price
$206.50
peak on December 15, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published September 25, 2025

Predicted growth
+5%
over the measurement window
Target price
$209.88
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$198.00 – $202.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$199.89
published September 25, 2025
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Baker Hughes offered $210 in cash per share, so that price guides the upside. The stock had fallen and is now stabilizing. News includes law firms reviewing the deal and solid long-term business results. If interest and the recent average price keep improving, shares may drift toward $210 within 0-3 months. Keep the position modest because timing and approvals can change.

Primary drivers

  • The $210 cash offer sets a clear target for where the share price could go
  • The price was weak, and now the recent average price is starting to rise
  • Investors like the business outlook, which supports confidence near term
  • News or regulatory timing could delay or derail the deal, pressuring shares

How it played out

GTLS: thesis partly played out, but target was not reached

Lyra published GTLS at $199.89 on September 25, 2025, with 5% expected growth over a short-term window ending December 24, 2025. The thesis pointed to the Baker Hughes $210 cash offer as the main guide for upside. It also pointed to a stabilizing stock price, a rising recent average price, investor support for the business outlook, and timing or approval risk around the deal.

Inside the window, GTLS rose but stayed below the $209.88 target. The peak was $206.50 on December 15, 2025, a 3.3% gain. It ended at $205.96. The thesis partly played out, but it missed the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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