Track record · closed signal

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) — closed signal from September 24, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 23, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

META price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$756.19 Published $876.47 Target $664.94 Window close $760.49 Peak
$740.79 – $758.76Entry zone — fair-value band
$756.19Published — price the day we called it
$876.47Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$760.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$664.94Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 4% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$760.49
peak on September 24, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+0.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$664.94
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 24, 2025 – December 23, 2025

The thesis — published September 24, 2025

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$876.47
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$740.79 – $758.76
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$756.19
published September 24, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

META looks ready for a short-term bounce after a recent pullback. New AI glasses and wider access to its Llama AI tools could draw in more businesses and developers. Ads are holding up, and steady AI news could lift the mood over the next 0-3 months. The price seems washed out and may drift back toward its usual range. Main risks: tougher rules from regulators and slower-than-hoped demand for new hardware.

Primary drivers

  • AI glasses launch could spark interest and open new revenue paths
  • Wider Llama AI access may boost use by partners and developers
  • After a sharp drop, signs suggest buyers may step back in soon
  • Big, active stock; headlines can move price and draw in investors

How it played out

META: target was not reached

Lyra published META at $756.19 on 2025-09-24 with a short-term thesis for 16% growth toward $876.47. The thesis pointed to a bounce after a pullback, interest around new smart glasses, wider access to Llama tools, steady ads, and news flow around artificial intelligence. It also named regulation and weaker hardware demand as risks.

Inside the window, META peaked at $760.49 on 2025-09-24, a 0.6% gain. That stayed below the target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $664.94. The published bounce thesis did not play out in the measured window.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-29, Meta reported third-quarter revenue of $51.24 billion and earnings per share of $1.05 after a $15.93 billion non-cash tax charge. The same report said Meta expected full-year expenses of $116 billion to $118 billion and capital expenditures of $70 billion to $72 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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