Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from July 8, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 6, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 77 days.
The thesis — published July 8, 2025
The stock has stayed above $220 and recent trading shows far more buyers than sellers. Leaders expect money from AI chips to be three times larger in three years. A small earnings edge suggests the July 18 results could beat expectations. The shares cost 19 times next-year profits, cheaper than similar chip companies, so the price could push past $235 and aim for about $260 in the coming months.
Primary drivers
- Recent trading activity shows strong buying after three quiet months
- AI chip sales could be three times bigger by 2027, boosting future growth
- A small edge in analyst estimates hints that next earnings may beat forecasts
- Shares are cheaper than rival chip firms, leaving room for the price to rise
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 77 days
Lyra published TSM at $227.19 on July 8, 2025, with 22% expected growth. The thesis pointed to strong buying after quiet trading, larger artificial intelligence chip sales by 2027, a possible earnings beat, and a valuation below rival chip firms. It said the price could push past $235 and aim for about $260 in the coming months.
Inside the window, TSM reached the $275.56 target in 77 days. The peak was $306.47 on October 6, 2025, with a 34.9% gain. It ended at $301.59. The published thesis played out, and the stock went beyond the target before the window closed.
What happened during the window
On July 17, 2025, Taiwan Semiconductor reported second-quarter profit of NT$398.3 billion and revenue of NT$933.2 billion. It also raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to 30% in dollar terms. On July 18, 2025, Tom's Hardware reported that the company planned more than 15 new fabs and said N2 mass production was set for late 2025.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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