Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from September 20, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 19, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 35% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 20, 2025
Microsoft is a leader in AI and cloud. A partner just announced a $17.4B plan to rent out chips for AI, which points to heavy demand that should benefit Azure and its data centers. The stock looks pricey after a strong run, so we prefer easing in on pullbacks near the recent average price. Over the next 1-3 months, Copilot use and cloud growth could keep momentum, while rules from regulators and style shifts are risks.
Primary drivers
- More companies are choosing Azure and Copilot, lifting sales and usage.
- A partner's $17.4B chip-rental plan points to strong, ongoing AI demand.
- Buying interest is strong, and price momentum remains healthily upward.
- As a giant stock, it attracts steady big-money flows when markets are calm.
How it played out
MSFT: target missed after a 6.9% peak gain
Lyra published MSFT at $516.96 on 2025-09-20 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to Azure and Copilot demand, a partner's $17.4B chip-rental plan, strong buying interest, healthy upward momentum, and steady big-money flows. It also noted that the stock looked pricey after a strong run.
Inside the window, MSFT rose to a peak of $552.69 on 2025-10-28, a 6.9% gain. It stayed below the $619.20 target and never reached it. By 2025-12-19, it ended at $485.92. The thesis partially played out on the early rise, but it missed the target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-29, Microsoft reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $77.7 billion and Microsoft Cloud revenue of $49.1 billion. The same report said capital spending was $34.9 billion, tied to GPUs, CPUs, and datacenter infrastructure for artificial intelligence demand.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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