Track record · closed signal

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) — closed signal from September 18, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 17, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

ASML price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$920.51 Published $1,157.78 Target $1,015.43 Window close $1,141.72 Peak
$896.81 – $918.74Entry zone — fair-value band
$920.51Published — price the day we called it
$1,157.78Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,141.72Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,015.43Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$1,141.72
peak on December 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+24%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$1,015.43
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 18, 2025 – December 17, 2025

The thesis — published September 18, 2025

Predicted growth
+26%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,157.78
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$896.81 – $918.74
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$920.51
published September 18, 2025
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

ASML makes the only machines that let chipmakers build the newest, tiniest chips. Lately, more buyers than usual have stepped in and the recent average price is rising, helped by a strong market. MediaTek using TSMC's 2 nm process points to steady demand for ASML's tools. This keeps ASML in control of key equipment and supports solid pricing. Shares have run up, so buy small dips and hold 1 to 3 months.

Primary drivers

  • More buyers than usual and the recent average price is trending upward
  • TSMC moving to 2 nm means more orders for ASML's advanced EUV machines
  • ASML is the only source for EUV gear, helping it keep strong pricing
  • A strong market draws in cash, helping leading stocks climb more easily

How it played out

ASML: strong rise, but the target was not reached

Lyra published ASML at $920.51 on 2025-09-18 with an expected gain of 26% and a target of $1157.78. The thesis pointed to more buyers than usual, a rising recent average price, TSMC moving to 2 nm, ASML's EUV position, and a strong market helping leading stocks climb.

Inside the window, ASML rose to $1141.72 on 2025-12-03, a 24% peak gain. That was close, but it stayed below the target. The target was never reached. By 2025-12-17, the stock ended at $1015.43. The thesis mostly played out, but it missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-15, ASML reported third-quarter earnings per share of 5.49 euros and revenue of 7.52 billion euros. The company also said it expected fourth-quarter sales between 9.2 billion euros and 9.8 billion euros. These were company-reported facts during the measurement window, not causes assigned to the share move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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