Track record · closed signal

Intuit Inc. (INTU) — closed signal from July 7, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 5, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

INTU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$750.22 – $780.03Entry zone — fair-value band

$780.69Published — price the day we called it

$918.30Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$812.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$678.70Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 22% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$812.22

peak on July 30, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+4%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$678.70

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

July 7, 2025 – October 5, 2025

The thesis — published July 7, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$918.30

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$750.22 – $780.03

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$780.69

published July 7, 2025

Confidence

64%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Intuit just released Intuit Assist, a smart digital helper built on artificial intelligence. Because it can handle more tasks, the company can add higher-priced versions of TurboTax and QuickBooks. A July 7 report from investment bank Mizuho kept its $875 price goal and pushed investor optimism close to perfect. Trading patterns hint that the quiet stretch of the past six weeks could be ending. If share volume jumps once the price moves above $800, the stock might rise to $875-900 within the next three months.

Primary drivers

AI helper may raise average customer spend on TurboTax and QuickBooks by 5-7%.
Mizuho reiterated its $875 price goal on Jul 7, lifting investor mood sharply.
Recent price trends and stronger buying hint that a new upward move is starting.
More new small businesses could support Intuit's plan for 11-12% sales growth in 2025.

How it played out

INTU: the target was not reached

Lyra published INTU at 780.69 on July 7, 2025, with expected growth of 18% and a target of 918.30. The thesis pointed to Intuit Assist, higher-priced TurboTax and QuickBooks versions, Mizuho's 875 price goal, stronger buying patterns, and new small-business formation that could support 11-12% sales growth in 2025.

Inside the window, INTU peaked at 812.22 on July 30, 2025. That was a 4% gain, but it stayed below the target. It never reached the target. By October 5, 2025, it ended at 678.70. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On August 21, 2025, Intuit reported fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 2.75 a share on revenue of 3.83 billion. On August 22, 2025, Investopedia reported that the stock fell in premarket trading after the company's fiscal 2026 outlook came in below analyst expectations.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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