Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) — closed signal from September 16, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 15, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$233.96 Published $276.07 Target $222.54 Window close $258.60 Peak
$230.00 – $235.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$233.96Published — price the day we called it
$276.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$258.60Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$222.54Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 58% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$258.60
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+10.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$222.54
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 16, 2025 – December 15, 2025

The thesis — published September 16, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$276.07
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$230.00 – $235.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$233.96
published September 16, 2025
Confidence
63%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Amazon looks steady but not hot yet. Buyers are slowly getting more active, while our recent average price is rising. Fresh news points to AI helping AWS, new warehouse robots, and wins using AMD chips. The holiday shopping season can lift retail. Best to buy on dips and wait for strength to show. A recovery over the next 3 months is reasonable if price firms up and lots more people are buying than usual.

Primary drivers

  • AI can boost demand for AWS, adding more paying customers and usage
  • Signs of steady buying from big investors support the share price
  • Recent news on robots and AWS using AMD chips could lift profits
  • Holiday shopping season usually helps Amazon's retail business

How it played out

AMZN: thesis partly played out, target was not reached

Lyra published AMZN at $233.96 on 2025-09-16 with an expected 18% gain over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to AWS demand from artificial intelligence, steady buying from big investors, warehouse robots, AWS use of AMD chips, and the holiday shopping season.

Inside the window, the stock rose to a $258.60 peak on 2025-11-03, a 10.5% gain. That was below the $276.07 target. It never got there. By 2025-12-15, AMZN ended at $222.54. The thesis partly played out because the stock did rise, but the target was missed and the window closed below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-30, Amazon reported third-quarter results, including higher sales and earnings and faster AWS growth. On 2025-10-28, Amazon said it planned to cut about 14,000 corporate jobs.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AMZN signals