Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from September 16, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 15, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published September 16, 2025
TSMC's trend is still upward because demand for AI chips and advanced packaging stays strong. Price action looks healthy, and the recent average price is rising, though the stock looks a bit stretched, so buying on pullbacks makes sense. Notes pointing to strong business quality and a solid place in the supply chain add confidence. Expect a steady rise over the next three months unless the sector cools.
Primary drivers
- Strong need for AI chips and advanced packaging should keep orders steady.
- Buying momentum looks firm and the recent average price is trending up.
- Recent data on 09-16 flagged strong performance versus peers.
- Respected position in chip supply chains helps win high-value work.
How it played out
TSM: rose 19% but never reached the target
Lyra published TSM on 2025-09-16 at 263.1 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence chips and advanced packaging, firm buying momentum, a rising recent average price, strong performance versus peers on 09-16, and TSMC's place in chip supply chains.
Inside the window, TSM rose to a peak of 313.13 on 2025-12-10, a 19% gain. That stayed below the 314.87 target, so it never got there. The stock ended the window at 287.74. The thesis mostly played out on direction, but it missed the stated target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and net income of $14.77 billion. On 2025-11-10, TSMC reported October sales up 16.9% year over year in local currency and raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to the mid-30% range.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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