Track record · closed signal

Intuit Inc. (INTU) — closed signal from September 16, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 15, 2025 — +1.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

INTU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$647.74 Published $788.80 Target $654.60 Window close $703.79 Peak
$637.67 – $647.63Entry zone — fair-value band
$647.74Published — price the day we called it
$788.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$703.79Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$654.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 40% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+1.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+8.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$654.60
last close inside the window, ended December 15, 2025
Peak price
$703.79
peak on September 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published September 16, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$788.80
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$637.67 – $647.63
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$647.74
published September 16, 2025
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Intuit looks ready to rebound as it heads into its 09-18 Investor Day. Buyer interest is picking up even though the short-term price has been soft, and overall mood is positive. Recent news helps: Mizuho kept a Buy with an $875 target, and Intuit added Clair On-Demand Pay to QuickBooks. If it shows clear ways to earn money from AI in QuickBooks and Mailchimp, growth could speed up over the next three months.

Primary drivers

  • 09-18 Investor Day could spark fresh interest and clearer growth plans.
  • More buyers than usual and a cooled price hint at a potential near-term lift.
  • Mizuho restated Buy with an $875 goal on 09-14, adding confidence.
  • New QuickBooks payroll option, Clair On-Demand Pay, may draw more users.

How it played out

INTU: target was not reached

Lyra published INTU at $647.74 on 2025-09-16. The thesis expected 22% growth toward $788.8 over the short-term window. It pointed to the 09-18 Investor Day, stronger buyer interest after a soft short-term price, Mizuho's Buy call with an $875 goal, Clair On-Demand Pay in QuickBooks, and clearer ways to earn from artificial intelligence in QuickBooks and Mailchimp.

Inside the window, INTU rose to $703.79 on 2025-09-22. That was an 8.7% peak gain, but it stayed below $788.8. It never got there. The stock ended at $654.6 on 2025-12-15. The thesis partially played out, but the published target missed.

What happened during the window

On November 20, 2025, Investor's Business Daily reported Intuit's fiscal first-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of $3.34 a share and sales of $3.89 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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