Track record · closed signal

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — closed signal from September 14, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 13, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSLA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$395.94 Published $506.80 Target $458.96 Window close $474.07 Peak
$388.00 – $400.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$395.94Published — price the day we called it
$506.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$474.07Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$458.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 70% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$474.07
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+19.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$458.96
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 14, 2025 – December 13, 2025

The thesis — published September 14, 2025

Predicted growth
+28%
over the measurement window
Target price
$506.80
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$388.00 – $400.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$395.94
published September 14, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Tesla's price has been strong, but headlines and events could move it quickly. A lawsuit over self-driving claims may trigger negative press, while plans to lift output in Germany suggest solid demand. Over the next 3 months, the upward move can continue if pullbacks stay modest. Prefer buying on dips and keep position sizes smaller than usual, because the stock can swing sharply.

Primary drivers

  • Strong recent price strength suggests buyers in control, but swings are big
  • New capacity in Germany could lift output and help meet European demand
  • Self-driving plans could open new revenue paths if progress turns into products
  • Lawsuits and negative news can shake confidence and cause sudden price drops

How it played out

TSLA: rose but never reached the target

Lyra published TSLA at 395.94 on 2025-09-14 with expected growth of 28%. The thesis pointed to strong recent price strength, possible output gains from Germany, self-driving plans, and the risk that lawsuits or negative news could shake confidence. It expected the upward move to continue if pullbacks stayed modest.

Inside the window, TSLA rose to 474.07 on 2025-11-03, a peak gain of 19.7%. That stayed below the 506.8 target. The stock ended the window at 458.96. The thesis partly played out because the stock rose, but it missed the published target. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-02, Tesla said it delivered 497,099 vehicles in the third quarter and produced 447,450 vehicles. On the same date, Business Insider reported Tesla had exceeded delivery expectations for the quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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