Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from September 14, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 13, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$257.82 Published $307.58 Target $292.04 Window close $313.13 Peak
$251.20 – $258.86Entry zone — fair-value band
$257.82Published — price the day we called it
$307.58Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$313.13Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$292.04Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 32 days.

Peak price
$313.13
peak on December 10, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+21.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$292.04
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
32
Window
September 14, 2025 – December 13, 2025

The thesis — published September 14, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$307.58
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$251.20 – $258.86
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$257.82
published September 14, 2025
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC sits at the heart of AI chip making, and the stock has been trending well on solid business results. New data shows August sales were up 34% compared to last year, and a major bank lifted its price target to $290, pointing to steady demand. The price has run recently, so buying on dips can be smarter. Over the next 3 months, tight capacity for its most advanced chips should keep interest and support further gains.

Primary drivers

  • August sales rose 34% compared to last year, showing strong demand
  • Top maker of the most advanced chips customers need for AI today
  • Price trend is strong, with lots more people buying than usual
  • Higher price targets from big brokers signal confidence in demand

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 32 days

Lyra published TSM at $257.82 on September 14, 2025, with a 3-month view and expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to August sales up 34% from last year, demand for advanced chips tied to artificial intelligence, a strong price trend with heavy buying, and higher broker targets.

Inside the window, TSM reached the $307.58 target in 32 days. It later peaked at $313.13 on December 10, a 21.5% gain from publication. By December 13, it ended at $292.04, below the target but still above the publication price. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On October 16, 2025, TSMC reported September-quarter earnings of $2.92 per U.S. share on sales of $33.1 billion. On November 10, 2025, TSMC reported October sales up 16.9% year over year in local currency and raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to the mid-30% range.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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