Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from September 12, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 11, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$258.39 Published $308.25 Target $304.85 Window close $313.13 Peak
$245.12 – $255.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$258.39Published — price the day we called it
$308.25Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$313.13Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$304.85Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 34 days.

Peak price
$313.13
peak on December 10, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+21.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$304.85
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
34
Window
September 12, 2025 – December 11, 2025

The thesis — published September 12, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$308.25
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$245.12 – $255.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$258.39
published September 12, 2025
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC makes the advanced chips that power AI, so it stays central to the boom. Buying interest is stronger than usual, and recent price action favors adding on dips instead of chasing spikes. A respected long-term model gave it a perfect score. Sector news points to solid AI-driven demand, and Taiwan's chip role adds importance. The price looks hot, so be patient; expect steady next 3 months unless interest rates jump.

Primary drivers

  • Top chip maker for AI and high-performance computing worldwide
  • Recent price trend and strong demand suggest many buyers are in control
  • Independent stock model gave a perfect score this week
  • Taiwan's global chip role helps the company maintain higher value

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 34 days

Lyra published TSM on 2025-09-12 at 258.39. The thesis expected 20% growth over the short-term window. It pointed to TSMC's role in chips for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, stronger than usual buying interest, recent price action that favored buying dips, a perfect long-term model score, sector demand, and Taiwan's chip role.

Inside the window, the target was 308.25. TSM reached it in 34 days and later peaked at 313.13 on 2025-12-10, with a peak gain of 21.2%. It ended at 304.85 on 2025-12-11. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On Oct. 16, 2025, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and raised its 2025 revenue growth forecast to the mid-thirties percentage range. On Oct. 17, 2025, Tom's Hardware reported that C.C. Wei said TSMC was moving up its 2nm Arizona production plans.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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