Track record · closed signal

Arm Holdings plc (ARM) — closed signal from September 11, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 10, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

ARM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$152.00 – $157.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$155.93Published — price the day we called it

$205.83Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$183.16Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$141.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 55% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$183.16

peak on October 27, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+17.5%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$141.52

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

September 11, 2025 – December 10, 2025

The thesis — published September 11, 2025

Predicted growth

+32%

over the measurement window

Target price

$205.83

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$152.00 – $157.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$155.93

published September 11, 2025

Confidence

62%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Arm rides strong excitement around AI. Recent news helped similar companies, and Arm's chip designs are used widely where power-efficient computing matters. The price trend is strong, but it ran up quickly and the company's current numbers do not fully back the hype, so swings can be sharp. A short-term trade makes sense: buy small on dips, and only add if it pushes past 160 with lots more buyers than usual.

Primary drivers

Many AI builders need Arm's chip designs across phones, devices, and servers.
The uptrend is intact, and the recent average price keeps moving higher.
Investors are excited, but today's profits and valuation leave less room for error.
The stock ran up fast, so plan entries carefully and avoid chasing strength.

How it played out

ARM: thesis rose partway but missed the target

Lyra published ARM on 2025-09-11 at 155.93, with expected growth of 32%. The thesis pointed to demand for Arm's chip designs in artificial intelligence builders, phones, devices, and servers. It also pointed to an intact uptrend, higher recent average prices, stretched profits and valuation, and the risk of sharp swings after a fast run-up.

Inside the window, ARM peaked at 183.16 on 2025-10-27, a 17.5% gain. That stayed below the 205.83 target, so the target was never reached. By 2025-12-10, it ended at 141.52. The thesis partly played out on the rally, but it missed the full target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ARM signals