Track record · closed signal

Arm Holdings plc - ADR (ARM) — closed signal from September 10, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 9, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

ARM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$148.33 Published $192.82 Target $141.93 Window close $183.16 Peak
$144.00 – $147.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$148.33Published — price the day we called it
$192.82Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$183.16Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$141.93Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 78% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$183.16
peak on October 27, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+23.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$141.93
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 10, 2025 – December 9, 2025

The thesis — published September 10, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$192.82
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$144.00 – $147.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$148.33
published September 10, 2025
Confidence
83%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Arm designs power-saving chips for phones, PCs, cars, and data centers, and more AI tasks are moving into these areas. The price trend looks strong, and lots more people are buying than usual. Shares are pricey, so easing in is wise. Recent news showed 17.8 percent sales growth and a 97.1 percent gross margin. With a friendlier backdrop for fast growers, buying dips could work over the next 0-3 months. This balances momentum with caution.

Primary drivers

  • Price trend is firm, and more buyers than usual are stepping in lately
  • Very high profit margins, and recent results show sales are growing
  • Falling cost pressures help investors feel OK paying higher prices
  • Gaining projects in AI and small devices, widening future demand

How it played out

ARM: target was not reached in the window

Lyra published ARM on 2025-09-10 at 148.33 with a short-term thesis for 30% growth. The thesis pointed to a firm price trend, heavier buying than usual, very high profit margins, sales growth of 17.8%, easing cost pressures, and more projects tied to artificial intelligence and small devices.

Inside the window, ARM rose but did not reach the 192.82 target. It peaked at 183.16 on 2025-10-27, a 23.5% gain. It ended the window at 141.93. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-05, Arm reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $1.14 billion and adjusted earnings of 39 cents per share. The same report said Arm guided for third-quarter sales of $1.23 billion and adjusted earnings of 41 cents per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ARM signals