Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) — closed signal from September 10, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 9, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$258.38 Published $313.38 Target $302.59 Window close $310.53 Peak
$249.07 – $255.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$258.38Published — price the day we called it
$313.38Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$310.53Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$302.59Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$310.53
peak on October 16, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+20.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$302.59
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 10, 2025 – December 9, 2025

The thesis — published September 10, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$313.38
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$249.07 – $255.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$258.38
published September 10, 2025
Confidence
85%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC makes chips that power AI and high-performance computers, and big tech firms keep sending steady orders. The stock has been strong lately but looks a bit heated, so buying in steps makes sense. Market mood improved after a cooler inflation report and a strong move in Oracle, pointing to heavy computing demand. Buying near the lower end of its recent range aims to ride firm backlogs and pricing over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • The share price has been rising steadily, showing strong upward momentum
  • A key chip supplier for the largest companies building advanced AI systems
  • A cooler inflation report helps investors value fast-growing firms higher
  • Oracle's strong move suggests heavy demand for data center computing power

How it played out

TSM: target stayed out of reach

Lyra published TSM on 2025-09-10 at 258.38 with 22% expected growth. The thesis pointed to steady orders for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing chips, recent share-price momentum, a cooler inflation report, Oracle's strong move, firm backlogs, and pricing over the next 0-3 months.

Inside the 2025-09-10 to 2025-12-09 window, TSM rose to a 310.53 peak on 2025-10-16, a 20.2% gain. It stayed below the 313.38 target and ended at 302.59. The thesis mostly played out, but it missed the full target.

What happened during the window

On October 16, 2025, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and net income of $14.77 billion. On November 10, 2025, GlobalFoundries entered a license agreement with TSMC for 650 V and 80 V GaN technology.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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