Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) — closed signal from September 8, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 7, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 16 days.
The thesis — published September 8, 2025
Alibaba is shifting from relying mainly on shopping to faster growth in AI-powered cloud services. Reports say AI work now tops 20% of sales to outside cloud customers and has grown more than double from a year ago. This looks promising, but we prefer waiting for a small dip. Policy in China and US listing rules add risk, so we would keep position size modest.
Primary drivers
- AI tools are lifting cloud sales and making them a bigger part of revenue
- Buying interest is strong lately, and the recent average price is moving up
- News says AI cloud sales grew more than double from last year
- A small stake in robotics adds extra upside if that business does well
How it played out
BABA: target reached in 16 days
Lyra published BABA on 2025-09-08 at $140.45, expecting 22% growth. The thesis pointed to faster cloud growth tied to artificial intelligence services, recent buying interest, reports that cloud sales linked to artificial intelligence had more than doubled, and a small robotics stake as possible upside.
Inside the window, BABA reached the $171.35 target in 16 days. It peaked at $192.67 on 2025-10-02, with a 37.2% gain. The window ended at $158.32, below the peak but above the publication price. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On November 25, 2025, Alibaba reported that cloud business revenue rose 34% for the July to September 2025 quarter, while overall revenue rose 5% to 247.8 billion yuan. AP also reported that profit fell 52% from last year. On November 25, 2025, The Wall Street Journal reported net profit of 20.99 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 10.35 billion yuan.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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