Track record · closed signal

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) — closed signal from September 8, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 7, 2025 — +12.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BABA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$140.45 Published $171.35 Target $158.32 Window close $192.67 Peak
$138.00 – $141.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$140.45Published — price the day we called it
$171.35Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$192.67Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$158.32Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 16 days.

At window close
+12.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+37.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$158.32
last close inside the window, ended December 7, 2025
Peak price
$192.67
peak on October 2, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
16

The thesis — published September 8, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$171.35
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$138.00 – $141.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$140.45
published September 8, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alibaba is shifting from relying mainly on shopping to faster growth in AI-powered cloud services. Reports say AI work now tops 20% of sales to outside cloud customers and has grown more than double from a year ago. This looks promising, but we prefer waiting for a small dip. Policy in China and US listing rules add risk, so we would keep position size modest.

Primary drivers

  • AI tools are lifting cloud sales and making them a bigger part of revenue
  • Buying interest is strong lately, and the recent average price is moving up
  • News says AI cloud sales grew more than double from last year
  • A small stake in robotics adds extra upside if that business does well

How it played out

BABA: target reached in 16 days

Lyra published BABA on 2025-09-08 at $140.45, expecting 22% growth. The thesis pointed to faster cloud growth tied to artificial intelligence services, recent buying interest, reports that cloud sales linked to artificial intelligence had more than doubled, and a small robotics stake as possible upside.

Inside the window, BABA reached the $171.35 target in 16 days. It peaked at $192.67 on 2025-10-02, with a 37.2% gain. The window ended at $158.32, below the peak but above the publication price. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On November 25, 2025, Alibaba reported that cloud business revenue rose 34% for the July to September 2025 quarter, while overall revenue rose 5% to 247.8 billion yuan. AP also reported that profit fell 52% from last year. On November 25, 2025, The Wall Street Journal reported net profit of 20.99 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 10.35 billion yuan.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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