Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) — closed signal from July 7, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 5, 2025 — +1.9% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 59% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 7, 2025
Exxon shares have been edging higher since June, and the price is back above its recent average price. A planned $34 billion natural-gas project in Indonesia plus an upcoming meeting of major oil-producing countries could spark more interest. If the stock dips to $110-$112 while oil softens, buyers may aim for $123 within three months, which would be about an 8-12 percent gain.
Primary drivers
- Indonesia gas deal grows Exxon’s presence in Asia and boosts future sales.
- Series of higher lows hints the downward trend may be ending.
- OPEC meeting could cut supply, raising oil prices and Exxon’s profits.
- The stock is now doing better than the broad energy index after lagging.
How it played out
XOM: target stayed out of reach
Lyra published XOM at $110.20 on 2025-07-07 with an expected gain of 11 percent over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to a planned $34 billion natural-gas project in Indonesia, a series of higher lows, a possible supply cut after a meeting of major oil-producing countries, and better performance than the broad energy index after prior lagging.
Inside the window, XOM rose as high as $117.33 on 2025-09-26, a 6.5 percent peak gain. It stayed below the $120.15 target and never reached it. The window ended on 2025-10-05 with the stock at $112.28. The thesis partially played out, because the stock rose, but the target was missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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