Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) (TSM) — closed signal from September 8, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 7, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 28 days.
The thesis — published September 8, 2025
TSMC makes the most advanced chips for AI and is at the center of demand. Its next-gen 2 nm chips already have many orders, likely keeping factories busy through year-end. The price trend looks healthy, so buying on dips can be sensible. Recent reports highlight heavy 2 nm demand, and possible annual U.S. export permits could make Asian supply more predictable. Advanced packaging for AI should keep spending strong.
Primary drivers
- 2 nm production ramp has many preorders, likely keeping factories very busy.
- Price trend looks strong, with more buyers than usual supporting near-term moves.
- Fresh reports on 2 nm demand and export permits point to steadier supply chains.
- AI spending and advanced packaging should keep TSMC's tools and lines utilized.
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 28 days
Lyra published TSM at 242.70 on 2025-09-08 with 24% expected growth. The thesis pointed to heavy demand for advanced chips, many 2 nm preorders, a healthy price trend, possible annual U.S. export permits, and advanced packaging tied to artificial intelligence spending.
Inside the window, TSM reached the 299.19 target in 28 days. The peak was 310.53 on 2025-10-16, with a 28% gain. By 2025-12-07, it ended at 293.93, below the target but still above the published price. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and net income of $14.77 billion. On 2025-11-07, Investors.com reported that TSMC had rejoined the IBD 50 list in late October after a September breakout.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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