Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) (TSM) — closed signal from September 8, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 7, 2025 — +21.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$235.23 – $242.15Entry zone — fair-value band

$242.70Published — price the day we called it

$299.19Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$310.53Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$293.93Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 28 days.

At window close

+21.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+28%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$293.93

last close inside the window, ended December 7, 2025

Peak price

$310.53

peak on October 16, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published September 8, 2025

Predicted growth

+24%

over the measurement window

Target price

$299.19

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$235.23 – $242.15

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$242.70

published September 8, 2025

Confidence

90%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC makes the most advanced chips for AI and is at the center of demand. Its next-gen 2 nm chips already have many orders, likely keeping factories busy through year-end. The price trend looks healthy, so buying on dips can be sensible. Recent reports highlight heavy 2 nm demand, and possible annual U.S. export permits could make Asian supply more predictable. Advanced packaging for AI should keep spending strong.

Primary drivers

2 nm production ramp has many preorders, likely keeping factories very busy.
Price trend looks strong, with more buyers than usual supporting near-term moves.
Fresh reports on 2 nm demand and export permits point to steadier supply chains.
AI spending and advanced packaging should keep TSMC's tools and lines utilized.

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 28 days

Lyra published TSM at 242.70 on 2025-09-08 with 24% expected growth. The thesis pointed to heavy demand for advanced chips, many 2 nm preorders, a healthy price trend, possible annual U.S. export permits, and advanced packaging tied to artificial intelligence spending.

Inside the window, TSM reached the 299.19 target in 28 days. The peak was 310.53 on 2025-10-16, with a 28% gain. By 2025-12-07, it ended at 293.93, below the target but still above the published price. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and net income of $14.77 billion. On 2025-11-07, Investors.com reported that TSMC had rejoined the IBD 50 list in late October after a September breakout.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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