Track record · closed signal

Intuit Inc. (INTU) — closed signal from September 8, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 7, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

INTU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$668.90 Published $787.86 Target $673.63 Window close $703.79 Peak
$657.59 – $669.55Entry zone — fair-value band
$668.90Published — price the day we called it
$787.86Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$703.79Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$673.63Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 29% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$703.79
peak on September 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+5.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$673.63
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 8, 2025 – December 7, 2025

The thesis — published September 8, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$787.86
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$657.59 – $669.55
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$668.90
published September 8, 2025
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Intuit is growing well, helped by AI features in QuickBooks and TurboTax. Trading shows lots more people are buying than usual, and the price looks ready to recover after a pullback. This week, sales rose 16% and profit beat forecasts. A major bank nudged its price target to $750 but stayed positive, and a respected model also agreed. Strong cash generation suggests buying dips over the next few months.

Primary drivers

  • Sales rose 16% this year and profits per share were better than expected
  • Buying activity is stronger than usual and price looks set to recover soon
  • New AI helpers in products give more ways to charge and keep customers
  • A bank slightly cut its price target, but a trusted model still looks positive

How it played out

INTU: target was not reached

Lyra published INTU at $668.90 on 2025-09-08, with an expected 18% short-term gain and a $787.86 target. The thesis pointed to sales up 16%, profit ahead of forecasts, stronger buying activity, artificial intelligence helpers in QuickBooks and TurboTax, and a still-positive outside target at $750.

Inside the window from 2025-09-08 to 2025-12-07, INTU peaked at $703.79 on 2025-09-22. That was a 5.2% gain, but it stayed below the $787.86 target. The stock ended at $673.63. The thesis partially played out on direction, but it missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-18, Intuit and OpenAI announced a multi-year partnership for financial applications. On 2025-11-20, Intuit reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $3.89 billion and adjusted earnings of $3.34 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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