Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from September 7, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 6, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 25 days.
The thesis — published September 7, 2025
TSM makes advanced chips for AI and data centers, and both the business outlook and recent trading look strong. There are signs that lots more people are buying than usual. Morgan Stanley expects the chip-making equipment market to reach $117B in 2025 and $122B in 2026, supporting TSM's growth spending. A US license change for Nanjing adds paperwork, not demand risk. Over the next 3 months, AI chip and packaging orders should stay firm.
Primary drivers
- Strong need for advanced AI chips and HBM packaging keeps TSM's orders high
- Buying interest is much higher than usual, signaling strong near-term demand
- Chip-making equipment market seen rising in 2025-2026, per Morgan Stanley
- US change to a Nanjing license adds paperwork but should not hurt demand
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 25 days
Lyra published TSM at 241.99 on 2025-09-07 with expected growth of 22% over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to demand for advanced artificial intelligence chips and HBM packaging, unusually high buying interest, Morgan Stanley's view that chip-making equipment could reach $117B in 2025 and $122B in 2026, and a Nanjing license change that was framed as paperwork, not demand risk.
Inside the window, TSM reached the 293.51 target in 25 days. The peak was 310.53 on 2025-10-16, with a 28.3% peak gain. It ended at 293.93 on 2025-12-06. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and net income of $14.77 billion. The report also said high-performance computing made up 57% of wafer sales.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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