Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) — closed signal from September 6, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 5, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 18 days.
The thesis — published September 6, 2025
Alibaba looks like a comeback story tied to its AI and cloud businesses. This week its Qwen team previewed a very large model, Citi lifted its price target to 187 after better cloud signs, and reports say it is testing homegrown chips to work around export limits. More buyers than usual seem to be showing up, but core results still lag, so start in stages on dips and add on strength over the next 3 months, carefully.
Primary drivers
- Qwen previewed a huge AI model, signaling faster progress in its tech
- Citi raised its price goal to 187, citing better trends in the cloud unit
- More buyers than usual are showing up, pointing to improving interest
- Trials of local chips could ease export limits and keep projects moving
How it played out
BABA: target reached in 18 days
Lyra published BABA at 135.58 on 2025-09-06 with a short-term thesis for 24% expected growth. The thesis pointed to progress in artificial intelligence and cloud, a Citi price goal of 187, stronger buyer interest, and trials of local chips that could help projects keep moving around export limits.
Inside the window, BABA rose above the 168.12 target and reached 192.67 on 2025-10-02. The peak gain was 42.1%, and the target was reached in 18 days. The stock ended the window at 158.32. The published thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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