Track record · closed signal

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) — closed signal from September 6, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 5, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

AAL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.90 – $13.25Entry zone — fair-value band

$13.08Published — price the day we called it

$15.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.89Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$14.81Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 69% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$14.89

peak on December 5, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+13.8%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$14.81

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

September 6, 2025 – December 5, 2025

The thesis — published September 6, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$15.70

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.90 – $13.25

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$13.08

published September 6, 2025

Confidence

60%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

This looks like a short-term value idea. The company will speak at the Morgan Stanley Laguna event soon, which can focus attention. A respected screen also flagged AAL as a possible buyout candidate. Recent price action and higher-than-usual trading suggest more interest than before. Because airline profits can swing with fuel costs and the economy, we would keep the position small and aim for about a three month window.

Primary drivers

Sep 11 company talk could draw fresh attention and move the share price.
Independent screen suggests AAL could attract a takeover offer in the future.
Recent price looks beaten down, while trading has been heavier than usual.
Shares look cheap, which can mean more upside potential than downside risk.

How it played out

AAL: thesis partly played out but missed the target

Lyra published AAL at 13.08 on 2025-09-06 as a short-term value idea. The thesis expected 20% growth toward 15.70 over about a three month window. It pointed to a Sep. 11 company talk, a screen that suggested possible takeover interest, heavier trading, and a beaten-down price.

Inside the window, AAL rose but did not reach the target. The peak was 14.89 on 2025-12-05, for a 13.8% gain. It ended at 14.81. The thesis partly played out because the stock moved higher, but the published target was missed. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On Oct. 23, 2025, American Airlines reported third-quarter results and raised its 2025 profit outlook. Barron's reported the same day that the stock rose before the market open after the report.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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