Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from September 6, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 5, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$241.99 Published $293.51 Target $293.93 Window close $310.53 Peak
$233.26 – $243.14Entry zone — fair-value band
$241.99Published — price the day we called it
$293.51Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$310.53Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$293.93Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 26 days.

Peak price
$310.53
peak on October 16, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+28.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$293.93
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
26
Window
September 6, 2025 – December 5, 2025

The thesis — published September 6, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$293.51
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$233.26 – $243.14
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$241.99
published September 6, 2025
Confidence
92%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM makes the chips behind AI, phones, and cars, and demand for its most advanced work is rising. Many more buyers than usual are stepping in, which supports recent price strength. A key supplier, ASML, just got a positive call from UBS, easing worries about equipment. Nvidia's CEO said companies may spend $3-4 trillion on AI. If the price dips toward its recent average, that could be a buying chance for the next few months.

Primary drivers

  • Big AI spending plans are boosting demand for TSM's most advanced chips
  • More buyers than usual signal broad support for the current price strength
  • UBS praised supplier ASML, easing concerns about key manufacturing equipment
  • The stock has led gains while the overall market backdrop remains supportive

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 26 days

Lyra published TSM on 2025-09-06 at 241.99 with expected growth of 22%. The target was 293.51. The thesis pointed to demand for advanced chips tied to artificial intelligence, phones, and cars, unusually broad buyer support, a positive UBS call on ASML, and a supportive market backdrop.

Inside the window from 2025-09-06 to 2025-12-05, the stock reached the target in 26 days. It peaked at 310.53 on 2025-10-16, a 28.3% gain. It ended at 293.93, still above the target. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and earnings per ADR of $2.92. On the same date, the company guided fourth-quarter revenue to $32.2 billion to $33.4 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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