Track record · closed signal

Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) — closed signal from September 5, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 4, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

MTCH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$37.33 Published $44.29 Target $33.68 Window close $38.40 Peak
$35.97 – $37.34Entry zone — fair-value band
$37.33Published — price the day we called it
$44.29Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$38.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$33.68Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 14% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$38.40
peak on September 9, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+2.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$33.68
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 5, 2025 – December 4, 2025

The thesis — published September 5, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$44.29
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$35.97 – $37.34
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$37.33
published September 5, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Match could see a short-term rebound because the price has fallen hard and often bounces after such drops, while the recent average price is starting to tilt up. The CEO buying shares adds confidence, and money earned per user rose 8.9%, which helps the story. Some trend measures are still weak, so waiting for proof of strength is wise. Over 0-3 months, a return to earlier price ranges is possible if products improve and online demand stays steady.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks washed out, and the recent average price is starting to rise
  • CEO recently bought shares, signaling confidence in the business
  • Money earned per user rose 8.9%, a healthy sign for revenue
  • Some trend signs still weak, so wait for proof the turn is real

How it played out

MTCH: the target was not reached

Lyra published MTCH at $37.33 on September 5, 2025, with expected growth of 20% and a target of $44.29. The thesis pointed to a washed-out price, a recent average price starting to rise, CEO share buying, money earned per user up 8.9%, and still-weak trend signs that needed proof.

Inside the window, MTCH rose only briefly. It peaked at $38.4 on September 9, 2025, for a 2.9% gain, and it never reached $44.29. By December 4, 2025, it ended at $33.68. The rebound thesis missed the target and did not play out in the measured window.

What happened during the window

On November 4, 2025, The Wall Street Journal reported Match Group's third-quarter results. Revenue rose to $914.3 million, Tinder paying users fell 7%, and Hinge paying users rose 17%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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