Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) — closed signal from September 5, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 4, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 27 days.
The thesis — published September 5, 2025
TSM makes the chips that power AI, and demand looks tight. The company said this week that quarterly sales rose 44% from last year, which backs up the story. Price action shows early signs of turning upward, with the recent average price climbing, even though one slower gauge still looks weak. Talk about tariffs is a risk, but if big cloud firms keep spending, the stock could revisit its highs over the next three months.
Primary drivers
- Sales rose 44% from last year, showing strong demand for AI chips
- Early signs of a stronger trend, with the recent average price moving up
- Price looks fair compared with rivals when you factor in its growth
- Tariff news could hurt the stock; set clear exit levels to limit downside
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 27 days
Lyra published TSM at 240 on 2025-09-05 with 22% expected growth. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence chips, sales up 44% from last year, early signs of a stronger trend, a fair price compared with rivals, and tariff news as a risk.
Inside the 2025-09-05 to 2025-12-04 window, TSM reached the 291.09 target in 27 days. The peak was 310.53 on 2025-10-16, a 29.4% gain. It ended at 292.14. The published thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-09, Barron's reported that TSMC said September revenue rose 31% from last year, with January through September revenue up 36%. On 2025-10-16, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC posted third-quarter revenue of $33.1 billion, up 40.8% from last year.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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