Track record · closed signal

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) — closed signal from September 5, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 4, 2025 — -6.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ADBE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$353.26 Published $423.91 Target $328.73 Window close $370.86 Peak
$345.00 – $355.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$353.26Published — price the day we called it
$423.91Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$370.86Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$328.73Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 25% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-6.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$328.73
last close inside the window, ended December 4, 2025
Peak price
$370.86
peak on September 18, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published September 5, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$423.91
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$345.00 – $355.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$353.26
published September 5, 2025
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Adobe looks like a strong company temporarily marked down. Selling seems to be easing, and investor mood is improving, which often leads to a bounce. A respected stock screen gave it a very high score this week, adding data-backed support. Weakness across software (like Figma's drop) points to broad market pressure, not an Adobe issue. With solid cash flow, a 3-month move back toward prior price ranges seems realistic.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks washed out while interest improves, hinting at a near-term rebound.
  • Independent rating was very strong this week, backing the case with fresh data.
  • Reliable cash flow and a product ecosystem customers rarely leave.
  • Industry dip seems market-wide, not due to Adobe-specific problems.

How it played out

ADBE: the target was not reached

Lyra published ADBE on 2025-09-05 at 353.26. The thesis expected 20% growth over a short-term window. It pointed to selling pressure easing, investor mood improving, a very strong independent rating, reliable cash flow, a sticky product ecosystem, and a software dip that looked market-wide rather than Adobe-specific.

Inside the window, ADBE rose to a peak of 370.86 on 2025-09-18, a 5% gain. That stayed below the 423.91 target. It never got there. By 2025-12-04, the stock ended at 328.73. The thesis partially played out early, but missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-28, Axios reported that Adobe announced assistants for Photoshop and Adobe Express at its Max conference, with Adobe Express in public beta and Photoshop in private testing.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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