Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from September 4, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 3, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 19 days.
The thesis — published September 4, 2025
TSMC's price has pulled back, but the company is strong and central to the boom in AI and powerful computing chips. Lots more people are buying than usual, and a well-known stock model gave it a perfect score. The stock is up 26 percent over 6 months. The main risk is that China export waivers could end. Even so, its key role in advanced chip supply could help the stock work back toward recent highs over the next 3 months.
Primary drivers
- Most advanced chip making pulls in heavy demand from AI and fast computing
- Solid profits and steady cash help it handle slowdowns and big projects
- Recent price pullback, yet investor mood remains positive and engaged
- Keeping a close eye on China export rules that could impact future sales
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 19 days
Lyra published TSM at 229.68 on 2025-09-04, with 20% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to demand from artificial intelligence and fast computing, solid profits and cash, a recent pullback with positive investor mood, and China export rules as the main risk.
Inside the window, the stock reached the 274.01 target in 19 days. It later peaked at 310.53 on 2025-10-16, a 35.2% gain. By 2025-12-03, it ended at 294.65, still above the target. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and net income of NT$452.30 billion. The company also guided fourth-quarter revenue to $32.2 billion to $33.4 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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