Track record · closed signal

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) — closed signal from September 3, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 2, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

ASML price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$734.14 Published $894.06 Target $1,108.78 Window close $1,113.21 Peak
$722.43 – $737.38Entry zone — fair-value band
$734.14Published — price the day we called it
$894.06Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,113.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,108.78Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 15 days.

Peak price
$1,113.21
peak on December 2, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+51.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$1,108.78
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
15
Window
September 3, 2025 – December 2, 2025

The thesis — published September 3, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$894.06
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$722.43 – $737.38
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$734.14
published September 3, 2025
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

ASML's shares look beaten down but may be turning up. Recent price action suggests buyers are getting more active. On 2025-09-02, SK hynix put ASML's newest High NA EUV tool into real factory use, which confirms ASML's strong advantage and likely future orders. Even if interest rates cause bumpy trading, spending for AI chips and memory is stabilizing, so easing in over time as price improves toward recent averages makes sense.

Primary drivers

  • Chipmakers starting to use High NA EUV shows real demand for ASML's tools.
  • Share price looks washed out, and buying momentum appears to be improving.
  • Spending on AI and memory chips is stabilizing, helping orders recover.
  • ASML leads its niche in chip-making gear, with few true competitors.

How it played out

ASML: target reached in 15 days

Lyra published ASML at 734.14 on 2025-09-03, with expected growth of 22% and a target of 894.06. The thesis pointed to real factory use of High NA EUV, improving buyer activity, stabilizing spending on artificial intelligence and memory chips, and ASML's lead in chip-making gear.

Inside the window, ASML reached the target in 15 days. The peak was 1113.21 on 2025-12-02, with a peak gain of 51.6%. The signal ended at 1108.78 on 2025-12-02. The thesis played out. It got there and kept rising.

What happened during the window

On October 15, 2025, ASML reported third-quarter results, including net bookings of 5.4 billion euros. On the same date, ASML said fourth-quarter sales were expected between 9.2 billion and 9.8 billion euros.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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