Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from September 3, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 2, 2025 — +27.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$222.38 – $227.33Entry zone — fair-value band

$228.51Published — price the day we called it

$277.16Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$310.53Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$291.30Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 20 days.

At window close

+27.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+35.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$291.30

last close inside the window, ended December 2, 2025

Peak price

$310.53

peak on October 16, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published September 3, 2025

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$277.16

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$222.38 – $227.33

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$228.51

published September 3, 2025

Confidence

77%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC dropped on headlines about export licenses, but long-term demand for AI chips still looks strong. On 2025-09-03, reports said the US may limit some sales to China, yet Nvidia sees $3-4T of AI spending over years, which supports orders. If nerves calm and buyers return, the price could rebound toward recent levels, helped by signs of lots more people buying than usual and a move back above its recent average price.

Primary drivers

Strong, lasting demand for AI chips; TSMC leads in advanced chip packaging
Shares have dropped a lot, setting up room for a rebound if fear eases
US limits on China sales may weigh now but look more like a short-term issue
Nvidia's big multi-year spending plans point to steady orders for TSMC

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 20 days

Lyra published TSM at $228.51 on 2025-09-03 with 22% expected growth. The thesis pointed to lasting demand for artificial intelligence chips, TSMC's role in advanced chip packaging, a rebound after a drop, export-license fears as a short-term issue, Nvidia's multi-year spending plans, heavy buying, and a move back above its recent average price.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $277.16 target in 20 days. It later peaked at $310.53 on 2025-10-16, with a 35.9% gain at the peak. By 2025-12-02, it ended at $291.30. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and said demand for leading-edge process technologies supported the quarter. AP also reported on 2025-10-16 that TSMC posted record net profit of 452.3 billion new Taiwan dollars for the July-September quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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