Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from July 6, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 4, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 72 days.
The thesis — published July 6, 2025
The share price rose 35 percent and is still near its peak. Its latest AI chips are already sold out until 2025, and the well-known Ark Invest fund has been buying a lot. Investor mood is almost perfect and a Warren Buffett-style quality score is very high. If new trade tariffs push the stock down to about 228-235, we expect it could climb to around 265 within three months because tight supply should keep prices firm.
Primary drivers
- Very high investor optimism and solid finances form an unusually powerful combo.
- Newest 3-nm chip factories are fully booked, so growing AI orders should lift sales.
- Large purchases by Cathie Wood’s Ark fund add extra demand from big investors.
- Tariff news may drop price to 228-235, giving a clearer entry before demand lifts it.
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 72 days
Lyra published a short-term TSM thesis on 2025-07-06 at 233.43. It expected 13 percent growth toward 262.24. The thesis pointed to very high investor optimism, solid finances, fully booked 3-nm factories, growing artificial intelligence orders, Ark buying, and a possible tariff-driven entry near 228-235.
Inside the window, TSM reached the target in 72 days. The peak was 295.92 on 2025-10-02, with a 26.8 percent gain. The stock ended the window at 291.4, still above the target. The published thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-07-17, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$933.8 billion and net income of NT$398.3 billion. On 2025-07-17, Axios reported that TSMC was speeding up manufacturing at its Phoenix campus and advancing the schedule for its second planned fab.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Share this receipt
A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.