Track record · closed signal

Innoviva, Inc. (INVA) — closed signal from September 2, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 1, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

INVA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$20.91 Published $27.18 Target $21.16 Window close $22.76 Peak
$19.80 – $21.30Entry zone — fair-value band
$20.91Published — price the day we called it
$27.18Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$22.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$21.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 30% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$22.76
peak on November 13, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+8.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$21.16
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 2, 2025 – December 1, 2025

The thesis — published September 2, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$27.18
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$19.80 – $21.30
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$20.91
published September 2, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Innoviva has steady cash from drug royalties and a near-term event that could lift the stock. The FDA put its antibiotic zoliflodacin on a faster review track, shortening the wait and improving the odds it reaches patients. A major bank began coverage with a $35 target, drawing interest. The price trend is turning up, and the shares still look reasonable, making dips appealing over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • FDA is reviewing zoliflodacin faster, speeding a possible approval.
  • Oppenheimer began coverage with Outperform and a $35 target.
  • Royalty income helps anchor the company's valuation.
  • Price trend is improving as more buyers show interest.

How it played out

INVA: the target was not reached

Lyra published INVA at 20.91 on September 2, 2025, with 30% expected growth. The thesis pointed to steady royalty cash, faster FDA review for zoliflodacin, new Oppenheimer coverage with a $35 target, and an improving price trend. It expected the stock to reach 27.18 inside the short-term window.

Inside the window, INVA rose but never reached the target. The peak was 22.76 on November 13, 2025, a gain of 8.9%. It ended the window at 21.16 on December 1, 2025. The thesis partly played out on direction, but it missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On November 7, 2025, Investor's Business Daily wrote that Innoviva had posted Q3 EPS growth and 20% revenue growth. The article also said INVA's IBD Composite Rating had moved from 61 to 98.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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