Track record · closed signal

Intuit Inc. (INTU) — closed signal from September 2, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 1, 2025 — -3.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

INTU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$637.67 – $662.58Entry zone — fair-value band

$656.56Published — price the day we called it

$773.33Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$703.79Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$631.62Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 40% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-3.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$631.62

last close inside the window, ended December 1, 2025

Peak price

$703.79

peak on September 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 2, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$773.33

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$637.67 – $662.58

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$656.56

published September 2, 2025

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Intuit fell after it warned growth may slow, pushing the price down more than usual. The business is still solid: a respected model scores its growth at 77%, and a major bank kept a positive view with an $825 goal. As selling pressure fades, a short-term bounce in the next 0-3 months is likely. We prefer easing in near $640-$665 and will wait for signs the slide is calming before getting more confident.

Primary drivers

Trusted small-business finance tools like QuickBooks and TurboTax
Share price fell after guidance reset, creating a possible entry window
KeyBanc still positive, keeps $825 price goal, supporting sentiment
Independent growth model gives a strong 77% score for expansion

How it played out

INTU: target was not reached

Lyra published INTU on 2025-09-02 at $656.56. The thesis expected 18% growth and a move toward $773.33. It pointed to QuickBooks and TurboTax, a selloff after a guidance reset, KeyBanc staying positive with an $825 goal, and an independent growth model with a 77% score. The preferred entry area was $640-$665.

Inside the window, INTU rose to $703.79 on 2025-09-22, with a peak gain of 7.2%. That stayed below the target. By 2025-12-01, it ended at $631.62. The thesis partially played out because the stock bounced, but it never reached the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-18, Intuit and OpenAI announced a partnership to bring Intuit apps into ChatGPT. On 2025-11-20, Intuit reported fiscal first-quarter results with adjusted earnings of $3.34 per share and revenue of $3.89 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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