Intuit Inc. (INTU) — closed signal from September 2, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 1, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 40% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 2, 2025
Intuit fell after it warned growth may slow, pushing the price down more than usual. The business is still solid: a respected model scores its growth at 77%, and a major bank kept a positive view with an $825 goal. As selling pressure fades, a short-term bounce in the next 0-3 months is likely. We prefer easing in near $640-$665 and will wait for signs the slide is calming before getting more confident.
Primary drivers
- Trusted small-business finance tools like QuickBooks and TurboTax
- Share price fell after guidance reset, creating a possible entry window
- KeyBanc still positive, keeps $825 price goal, supporting sentiment
- Independent growth model gives a strong 77% score for expansion
How it played out
INTU: target was not reached
Lyra published INTU on 2025-09-02 at $656.56. The thesis expected 18% growth and a move toward $773.33. It pointed to QuickBooks and TurboTax, a selloff after a guidance reset, KeyBanc staying positive with an $825 goal, and an independent growth model with a 77% score. The preferred entry area was $640-$665.
Inside the window, INTU rose to $703.79 on 2025-09-22, with a peak gain of 7.2%. That stayed below the target. By 2025-12-01, it ended at $631.62. The thesis partially played out because the stock bounced, but it never reached the published target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-11-18, Intuit and OpenAI announced a partnership to bring Intuit apps into ChatGPT. On 2025-11-20, Intuit reported fiscal first-quarter results with adjusted earnings of $3.34 per share and revenue of $3.89 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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