Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from September 2, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 1, 2025 — +26.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$217.44 – $227.33Entry zone — fair-value band

$227.30Published — price the day we called it

$282.47Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$310.53Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$286.91Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 21 days.

At window close

+26.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+36.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$286.91

last close inside the window, ended December 1, 2025

Peak price

$310.53

peak on October 16, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published September 2, 2025

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$282.47

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$217.44 – $227.33

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$227.30

published September 2, 2025

Confidence

88%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC makes the chips that power AI and many devices. Recent results showed sales up 44% compared to last year, so the business has strong momentum. The stock has dropped sharply, partly after the U.S. slowed a fast-track export status for China, which spooked investors. But TSMC sells to many regions and end markets, not just China. Over the next 0-3 months, steady orders and wider buying across the sector could help the price recover toward earlier highs.

Primary drivers

AI demand lifts sales of TSMC's most advanced chips and pricing power
After a sharp slide, market behavior points to a likely near-term bounce
Q2 revenue rose 44% from last year, showing real business momentum
Export rules are a risk, but buyers span many regions and industries

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 21 days

Lyra published TSM at 227.3 on 2025-09-02. The thesis expected 25% growth over 0-3 months. It pointed to demand for advanced chips tied to artificial intelligence, a likely near-term bounce after a sharp slide, Q2 revenue up 44% from last year, and broad buyers across regions and industries despite export-rule risk.

Inside the window, TSM reached the 282.47 target in 21 days. The peak was 310.53 on 2025-10-16, above the target, with a peak gain of 36.6%. It ended the window at 286.91. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.1 billion. On 2025-11-10, TSMC reported October sales growth of 16.9% year over year and raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to the mid-30% range.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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