Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from September 2, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 1, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 21 days.
The thesis — published September 2, 2025
TSMC makes the chips that power AI and many devices. Recent results showed sales up 44% compared to last year, so the business has strong momentum. The stock has dropped sharply, partly after the U.S. slowed a fast-track export status for China, which spooked investors. But TSMC sells to many regions and end markets, not just China. Over the next 0-3 months, steady orders and wider buying across the sector could help the price recover toward earlier highs.
Primary drivers
- AI demand lifts sales of TSMC's most advanced chips and pricing power
- After a sharp slide, market behavior points to a likely near-term bounce
- Q2 revenue rose 44% from last year, showing real business momentum
- Export rules are a risk, but buyers span many regions and industries
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 21 days
Lyra published TSM at 227.3 on 2025-09-02. The thesis expected 25% growth over 0-3 months. It pointed to demand for advanced chips tied to artificial intelligence, a likely near-term bounce after a sharp slide, Q2 revenue up 44% from last year, and broad buyers across regions and industries despite export-rule risk.
Inside the window, TSM reached the 282.47 target in 21 days. The peak was 310.53 on 2025-10-16, above the target, with a peak gain of 36.6%. It ended the window at 286.91. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.1 billion. On 2025-11-10, TSMC reported October sales growth of 16.9% year over year and raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to the mid-30% range.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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