ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) — closed signal from September 2, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 1, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 16 days.
The thesis — published September 2, 2025
ASML makes the key machines that build the most advanced chips, so chipmakers rely on it. The recent slide looks overdone, and buyers are starting to return, which can spark a short-term rebound. India highlighted ASML's tools as it aims for a $100B chip push by 2030, which could grow its future customer base. With durable advantages, we like slowly buying dips for a possible 0-3 month recovery as the chip sector calms after rate swings.
Primary drivers
- ASML is one of the only sources for top-end EUV chip-making tools
- Recent drop looks overdone and buyer interest is picking up this month
- Work with India could widen its long-term potential customer base
- Improving mood around chip stocks makes a short-term rebound more likely
How it played out
ASML: target reached in 16 days
Lyra published ASML at 724.05 on 2025-09-02 with 24% expected growth and a 896.23 target. The thesis pointed to ASML's role in top-end EUV chip-making tools, an overdone recent drop, returning buyer interest, possible India-related demand, and a better mood around chip stocks.
Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 16 days. It kept rising and peaked at 1091.30 on 2025-12-01, with a 50.7% peak gain. It ended the window at 1087.99. The published thesis played out, and the move went beyond the stated target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-15, ASML reported third-quarter results. Reports said earnings beat estimates, revenue missed estimates, net bookings were 5.4 billion euros, and fourth-quarter sales guidance was above analyst expectations.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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