Track record · closed signal

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) — closed signal from September 1, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 30, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$164.08 Published $180.41 Target $156.06 Window close $166.76 Peak
$159.03 – $161.92Entry zone — fair-value band
$164.08Published — price the day we called it
$180.41Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$166.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$156.06Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 13% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$166.76
peak on September 11, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$156.06
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 1, 2025 – November 30, 2025

The thesis — published September 1, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$180.41
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$159.03 – $161.92
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$164.08
published September 1, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

PM looks beaten down and could rebound as buying interest picks up. Broad market news is background, and more spending on AI-powered ads may help reach adult customers more effectively. The steady dividend and shift toward smoke-free products add stability. Consider the suggested range as the trend improves, but keep an eye on valuation and currency risks.

Primary drivers

  • Shares look beaten down, and buying interest appears to be increasing
  • A steady dividend pays income and can help steady the share price
  • More ad budgets moving to AI tools may boost outreach to adult smokers
  • Expanding smoke-free product focus aimed at lower-risk alternatives

How it played out

PM: the target was not reached

Lyra published PM at 164.08 on 2025-09-01 with expected growth of 12%. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down share price, improving buying interest, a steady dividend, more ad budgets moving to artificial intelligence tools, and a shift toward smoke-free products. The target was 180.41.

Inside the 2025-09-01 to 2025-11-30 window, PM peaked at 166.76 on 2025-09-11. That was a 1.6% peak gain, but it stayed below the target. It never got there. The stock ended the window at 156.06. The published rebound thesis missed on price.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-21, Barron's reported that Philip Morris posted third-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.24 per share and revenue of $10.8 billion. The same day, The Wall Street Journal reported that the company lifted its 2025 adjusted earnings outlook to $7.46 to $7.56 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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