Track record · closed signal

AppLovin Corporation (APP) — closed signal from September 1, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 30, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

APP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$478.59 Published $622.17 Target $599.48 Window close $745.61 Peak
$470.00 – $480.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$478.59Published — price the day we called it
$622.17Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$745.61Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$599.48Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 17 days.

Peak price
$745.61
peak on September 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+55.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$599.48
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
17
Window
September 1, 2025 – November 30, 2025

The thesis — published September 1, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$622.17
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$470.00 – $480.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$478.59
published September 1, 2025
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

APP is seen as a market favorite right now. Buying interest looks stronger than usual, and the recent average price is climbing, which agrees with both analysts covering it. On Aug 29, Scotiabank lifted its goal for the stock to $575, adding fuel. The mobile ad market is improving, and more clients are adopting tools that show better returns. Plan to buy on normal pullbacks, aiming for a move higher over the next three months.

Primary drivers

  • Recent average price is rising and buying looks strong, signaling an uptrend
  • Aug 29: Scotiabank raised its price target to $575, adding confidence
  • Interest is stronger than usual, with models showing powerful recent strength
  • Ad-tech share gains as its tools help advertisers see better returns

How it played out

APP: target reached in 17 days

Lyra published APP on 2025-09-01 at 478.59 with expected growth of 30%. The thesis pointed to stronger than usual buying interest, a rising recent average price, Scotiabank's Aug 29 goal of 575, improving mobile ad demand, and wider use of tools that showed better returns for advertisers.

Inside the 2025-09-01 to 2025-11-30 window, APP reached the 622.17 target in 17 days. It peaked at 745.61 on 2025-09-29, with a peak gain of 55.8%. It ended at 599.48. The thesis played out, even though the final price sat below the target.

What happened during the window

On September 22, 2025, AppLovin was set to join the S&P 500 as part of index changes. On November 5, 2025, AppLovin reported Q3 2025 results and gave Q4 guidance, according to Investors.com.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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