Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) — closed signal from August 31, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 29, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 17 days.
The thesis — published August 31, 2025
Alibaba posted a 67 percent jump in profit compared to last year, and the stock rose 13 percent after results. Work on AI chips adds a new growth angle. A court decision saying most Trump-era tariffs were illegal is a helpful backdrop. Short-term signs suggest the stock ran hot, so consider waiting for pullbacks. Over the next 1 to 3 months, a pause then renewed gains is possible if forecasts and trading interest keep improving.
Primary drivers
- Profit up 67 percent compared to last year, showing stronger execution
- Work on AI chips could open new products and more ways to make money
- Court ruling against most tariffs helps the trade outlook and confidence
- After a fast rise, waiting for pullbacks may offer better entry points
How it played out
BABA: target reached in 17 days
Lyra published BABA at $135 on 2025-08-31 with expected growth of 22 percent. The thesis pointed to profit up 67 percent compared to last year, work on artificial intelligence chips, a court ruling against most tariffs, and the idea that a pullback could offer a better entry after a fast rise.
Inside the window from 2025-08-31 to 2025-11-29, BABA reached the $164.70 target in 17 days. It later peaked at $192.67 on 2025-10-02, a 42.7 percent gain. The stock ended at $157.30. The published thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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