Track record · closed signal

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) — closed signal from August 31, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 29, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$164.08 Published $175.58 Target $156.06 Window close $166.76 Peak
$159.03 – $161.92Entry zone — fair-value band
$164.08Published — price the day we called it
$175.58Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$166.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$156.06Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 18% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$166.76
peak on September 11, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$156.06
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 31, 2025 – November 29, 2025

The thesis — published August 31, 2025

Predicted growth
+9%
over the measurement window
Target price
$175.58
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$159.03 – $161.92
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$164.08
published August 31, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

This is a steady, dividend-paying stock that may be starting to turn up. Big-picture news on jobs and interest rates often nudges investors toward everyday-goods companies, which can help here. Sentiment is upbeat but growth is modest, so a short 1-3 month bounce near 165-168 makes sense. Watch whether smoke-free products keep gaining users and how currency moves affect results, since that can help or hurt reported numbers.

Primary drivers

  • Recent trading shows more buying than usual, hinting at a possible upswing.
  • Steady dividends can cushion drops and attract cautious investors.
  • Smoke-free products are gaining users, supporting long-term growth.
  • If jobs and rates news stays calm, everyday-goods stocks can hold up.

How it played out

PM: target missed after a 1.6% peak gain

Lyra published PM at 164.08 on 2025-08-31 with a short-term setup and expected growth of 9%. The thesis pointed to recent buying, steady dividends, smoke-free product user growth, and calmer jobs and rates news as possible support for an everyday-goods stock.

Inside the 2025-08-31 to 2025-11-29 window, PM peaked at 166.76 on 2025-09-11, a 1.6% gain. It never reached the 175.58 target. The stock ended at 156.06. The thesis called for a bounce, but the market only gave a small early rise and then finished below the publication price. Verdict: it missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-21, Philip Morris reported third-quarter results. Barron's reported adjusted earnings of $2.24 per share and revenue of $10.8 billion, while the shares fell that day after the company raised only the lower end of its 2025 guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PM signals