Track record · closed signal

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) — closed signal from August 30, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 28, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

BABA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$135.00 Published $178.20 Target $157.30 Window close $192.67 Peak
$132.00 – $138.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$135.00Published — price the day we called it
$178.20Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$192.67Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$157.30Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 25 days.

Peak price
$192.67
peak on October 2, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+42.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$157.30
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
25
Window
August 30, 2025 – November 28, 2025

The thesis — published August 30, 2025

Predicted growth
+32%
over the measurement window
Target price
$178.20
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$132.00 – $138.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$135.00
published August 30, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alibaba's stock has been running fast, which often means near-term upside but also a higher chance of a quick cool-off. Buying interest is strong, with more activity than usual. The company said its Cloud unit's sales rose 26% from last year, helped by demand for AI, which is a key growth driver. There are still risks from government policy and currency moves. If the price dips mildly, it may set up a buy for the next 3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Cloud business is speeding up, powered by rising demand for AI services
  • Price trend is strong, with lots more people buying than usual right now
  • Short term looks overheated, so small dips may offer better entries
  • Government rules and currency swings add risk; use clear exit plans

How it played out

BABA: target reached in 25 days

Lyra published BABA at 135 on 2025-08-30, with 32% expected growth and a 178.20 target. The thesis pointed to faster Cloud sales, stronger buying activity, and a price trend that was already running fast. It also warned that the short term looked overheated, with government rules and currency swings as risks.

Inside the window, the stock reached 192.67 on 2025-10-02, above the target. The target was reached in 25 days. The peak gain was 42.7%. By 2025-11-28, BABA ended at 157.30. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On November 26, 2025, Business Insider reported Alibaba's quarter ending September 30, with revenue of 247.8 billion yuan and cloud growth of 34%. It also reported that the Qwen app passed 10 million downloads in its first week.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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