Track record · closed signal

MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO) — closed signal from August 29, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 27, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

MNSO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$24.70 Published $30.51 Target $19.56 Window close $25.92 Peak
$23.24 – $25.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$24.70Published — price the day we called it
$30.51Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$25.92Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$19.56Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 20% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$25.92
peak on September 9, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+4.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$19.56
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 29, 2025 – November 27, 2025

The thesis — published August 29, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$30.51
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$23.24 – $25.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$24.70
published August 29, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

MINISO looks strong for near-term gains, and the business news backs it up. On Aug 25-26, sales beat expectations by 23%, the company finished buying back 6.9M shares, and it announced an interim dividend. That shows cash is going to investors while the business grows. Price action is healthy, with the recent average price rising and lots more people buying than usual. Buying dips could set up a move toward prior highs in 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Recent quarter sales were 23% higher than what analysts expected
  • The company is buying back shares and paying a dividend to investors
  • The recent average price is rising and buying interest is much higher
  • Opening more stores worldwide is improving sales per store results

How it played out

MNSO: target missed after a brief 4.9% peak

Lyra published MNSO at 24.7 on 2025-08-29, with expected growth of 25% and a target of 30.51. The thesis pointed to quarter sales that were 23% higher than analysts expected, a 6.9M share buyback, an interim dividend, rising recent average price, higher buying interest, and more stores worldwide.

Inside the 2025-08-29 to 2025-11-27 window, MNSO peaked at 25.92 on 2025-09-09, a 4.9% gain. It never reached 30.51. The stock ended at 19.56. The thesis partly caught a small early move, but the published target was missed and the overall call did not play out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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