Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) — closed signal from August 29, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 27, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 18% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published August 29, 2025
Blue Bird looks strong in both story and numbers. News on Aug 26-27 showed it fits a steady-growth-at-a-fair-price style and is rolling out electric school buses in California that can also send power back to the grid. Buying interest has been firm, and the recent average price is rising. A solid order book and firm pricing support profits. The plan is to ride the next 0-3 months toward prior highs by adding on dips.
Primary drivers
- Growth at a fair price, with earnings per share rising steadily
- Electric buses that can send power back to the grid are rolling out
- Uptrend with a rising recent average price and steady buying interest
- Large order backlog and firm pricing help keep profit margins strong
How it played out
BLBD: the target was never reached
Lyra published BLBD at 59.34 on 2025-08-29 with a short-term setup looking for 25% growth toward 74.18. The thesis pointed to growth at a fair price, steadily rising earnings per share, electric school buses that could send power back to the grid, firm buying interest, a rising recent average price, a large order backlog, and firm pricing.
Inside the window, BLBD rose to a peak of 61.95 on 2025-09-23, a 4.4% gain. It stayed below the 74.18 target and never reached it. By 2025-11-27, it ended at 52.74. The thesis missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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