Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from August 29, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 27, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 21 days.
The thesis — published August 29, 2025
Harmony fell after its FY25 update because it expects costs to rise about 9-16% and there were safety headlines. At the same time, it reported record adjusted free cash flow and net cash up 285%, showing stronger finances. Trading was unusually heavy, hinting at more buyers than usual. If gold prices stay steady, the stock could rebound in the next 0-3 months as sentiment and a stronger balance sheet help.
Primary drivers
- Record cash flow and a 285% cash jump strengthen the financial cushion for rough patches
- Unusually heavy trading points to stronger buying interest than normal
- The cost shock knocked shares down, creating a value entry for brave buyers
- Gold often helps late in the year; this stock tends to move with gold
How it played out
HMY: target reached in 21 days
Lyra published HMY on 2025-08-29 at 13.02 with 24% expected growth and a 16.08 target. The thesis pointed to record adjusted free cash flow, net cash up 285%, unusually heavy trading, a value entry after cost concerns, and possible support from steady gold prices.
Inside the window from 2025-08-29 to 2025-11-27, the stock reached the target in 21 days. It kept rising to a 22.25 peak on 2025-10-16, with a 70.9% peak gain. It ended at 19.3, still above the target. The thesis played out, and the move went beyond the published target.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Share this receipt
A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.