The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from August 29, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 27, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 22% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published August 29, 2025
Schwab looks set for a calm recovery over the next 0-3 months. Short-term price signs suggest the down move may be running out of steam, and momentum is stabilizing. Recent research (Aug 27-28) noted stronger earnings growth potential and a lower price tag than IBKR. IBKR entering the S&P 500 keeps attention on broker stocks. With optimism firm and client cash headwinds easing as rates level off, a return toward prior ranges is reasonable.
Primary drivers
- Short-term signs the stock is worn down and may be getting ready to turn up
- Looks cheaper than a close rival, which can draw in value-focused buyers
- Investors are focused on brokers now, lifting interest and confidence
- Customer cash pressure is easing as interest rates stop climbing
How it played out
SCHW: target was not reached
Lyra published SCHW at $95.78 on 2025-08-29 with a short-term view for 12% growth. The thesis pointed to a stock that looked worn down, steadier momentum, a cheaper price than a close rival, broker-stock attention, and easing customer cash pressure as rates stopped climbing.
Inside the window, SCHW rose only modestly. Its peak was $98.22 on 2025-11-12, a 2.6% gain, and it stayed below the $106.97 target. The window ended at $91.80 on 2025-11-27. The thesis missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, Charles Schwab reported third-quarter profit and revenue growth, including revenue of $6.14 billion. On 2025-11-06, Schwab announced a deal to buy Forge Global for $660 million.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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