Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from August 29, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 27, 2025 — -4.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$93.97 – $96.45Entry zone — fair-value band

$95.78Published — price the day we called it

$106.97Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$98.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$91.80Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 22% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-4.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+2.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$91.80

last close inside the window, ended November 27, 2025

Peak price

$98.22

peak on November 12, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published August 29, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$106.97

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$93.97 – $96.45

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$95.78

published August 29, 2025

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab looks set for a calm recovery over the next 0-3 months. Short-term price signs suggest the down move may be running out of steam, and momentum is stabilizing. Recent research (Aug 27-28) noted stronger earnings growth potential and a lower price tag than IBKR. IBKR entering the S&P 500 keeps attention on broker stocks. With optimism firm and client cash headwinds easing as rates level off, a return toward prior ranges is reasonable.

Primary drivers

Short-term signs the stock is worn down and may be getting ready to turn up
Looks cheaper than a close rival, which can draw in value-focused buyers
Investors are focused on brokers now, lifting interest and confidence
Customer cash pressure is easing as interest rates stop climbing

How it played out

SCHW: target was not reached

Lyra published SCHW at $95.78 on 2025-08-29 with a short-term view for 12% growth. The thesis pointed to a stock that looked worn down, steadier momentum, a cheaper price than a close rival, broker-stock attention, and easing customer cash pressure as rates stopped climbing.

Inside the window, SCHW rose only modestly. Its peak was $98.22 on 2025-11-12, a 2.6% gain, and it stayed below the $106.97 target. The window ended at $91.80 on 2025-11-27. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-16, Charles Schwab reported third-quarter profit and revenue growth, including revenue of $6.14 billion. On 2025-11-06, Schwab announced a deal to buy Forge Global for $660 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals