Track record · closed signal

Kohl's Corporation (KSS) — closed signal from August 27, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 25, 2025 — +44.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

KSS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$14.62 – $15.59Entry zone — fair-value band

$15.44Published — price the day we called it

$19.81Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$22.34Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$22.30Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 90 days.

At window close

+44.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+44.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$22.30

last close inside the window, ended November 25, 2025

Peak price

$22.34

peak on November 25, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published August 27, 2025

Predicted growth

+30%

over the measurement window

Target price

$19.81

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$14.62 – $15.59

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$15.44

published August 27, 2025

Confidence

62%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Kohl's jumped after it beat expectations and raised its full-year outlook. More buyers showed up than usual, which can push prices fast. But the company's core results look mixed, and the stock can swing a lot. Buys near $15-$16 are short-term, not long-term. We want to see continued buying and clear proof of stronger profit margins before getting more positive. High short interest can make moves bigger both up and down.

Primary drivers

Beat expectations and raised guidance on the latest quarterly report
Unusually strong buying could keep pushing the price in the near term
Possible short-term entry after a sharp jump, with tighter risk control
Business trends are mixed, so results may not fully support the spike

How it played out

KSS: target reached in 90 days

Lyra published KSS at $15.44 on 2025-08-27 with expected growth of 30%. The thesis pointed to a recent expectations beat, raised guidance, unusually strong buying, and a possible short-term entry after a sharp jump. It also said business trends were mixed, so the move still needed proof from stronger profit margins.

Inside the window, KSS reached a peak of $22.34 on 2025-11-25, above the $19.81 target. The target was reached in 90 days. The stock ended at $22.30, with a peak gain of 44.7%. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-24, Kohl's named Michael J. Bender permanent chief executive. On 2025-11-25, MarketWatch reported that Kohl's posted a third-quarter profit, beat sales expectations, and raised its full-year guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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