Track record · closed signal

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) — closed signal from August 27, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 25, 2025 — +132.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LITE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$125.36 Published $152.94 Target $291.27 Window close $300.00 Peak
$123.00 – $126.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$125.36Published — price the day we called it
$152.94Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$300.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$291.27Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 14 days.

At window close
+132.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+139.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$291.27
last close inside the window, ended November 25, 2025
Peak price
$300.00
peak on November 24, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
14

The thesis — published August 27, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$152.94
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$123.00 – $126.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$125.36
published August 27, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lumentum looks like a leader in fiber optics right now. A Aug 26, 2025 review showed profit up 1,366% and sales up 56%. Zacks kept a #1 rank as forecasts improved (Aug 25, 2025). Buying interest is heavier than usual and the recent average price is firm. Plan entries around $123-$126 to ride a 0-3 month upswing as big data centers boost optical demand. Use tight risk steps since the price already looks full.

Primary drivers

  • Aug 26, 2025: profit up 1,366% and sales up 56%, signaling sharp growth
  • Zacks ranks it #1 as analysts raise earnings estimates for the year
  • Stronger buying than usual and the recent average price is rising
  • AI expansion needs faster optics, likely lifting orders and revenue

How it played out

LITE: target reached in 14 days

Lyra published LITE on 2025-08-27 as a short-term setup for a 22% move. The thesis pointed to the Aug 26, 2025 review showing profit up 1,366% and sales up 56%, a Zacks #1 rank, stronger buying than usual, a rising recent average price, and data-center demand for faster optics. The planned entry area was $123 to $126, with a target of $152.94.

Inside the window, LITE reached the target in 14 days. It later peaked at $300 on 2025-11-24, for a 139.3% gain, then ended the window at $291.27. The published thesis played out, and the move went well past the target.

What happened during the window

On Nov 5, 2025, Barron's reported that Lumentum posted fiscal first-quarter earnings of $1.10 a share and revenue of $533.8 million, up 58% from last year. The same report said Lumentum forecast second-quarter revenue of $630 million to $670 million and adjusted earnings of $1.30 to $1.50 a share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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