Track record · closed signal

Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) — closed signal from August 27, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 25, 2025 — -6.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ANET price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$132.00 – $134.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$133.57Published — price the day we called it

$154.94Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$164.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$125.04Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 15 days.

At window close

-6.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+23.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$125.04

last close inside the window, ended November 25, 2025

Peak price

$164.94

peak on October 30, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published August 27, 2025

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$154.94

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$132.00 – $134.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$133.57

published August 27, 2025

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Arista sells the fast networking gear that powers big cloud and AI data centers. A 2025-08-27 report said sales grew about 26% and profit per share about 31%. A 2025-08-26 note also said Arista has an edge over Cisco in new 800G products. The stock recently dipped; buying near $132-$134.50 looks aimed at a 0-3 month recovery as AI data center spending stays strong and positive investor mood helps buying interest return.

Primary drivers

Recent notes: sales up ~26%, profit per share up ~31% this cycle.
Leading position in new 800G network hardware for large cloud clients.
Short-term pullback in a top name could set up a near-term rebound.
Rising AI data center spending increases demand for Arista's gear.

How it played out

ANET: target reached in 15 days

Lyra published ANET at 133.57 on 2025-08-27 as a short-term recovery setup. The thesis expected 16% growth and pointed to sales up about 26%, profit per share up about 31%, strength in 800G network hardware, a pullback, and demand from artificial intelligence data centers.

Inside the window, ANET reached the 154.94 target in 15 days. It later peaked at 164.94 on 2025-10-30, with a 23.5% peak gain. By 2025-11-25 it ended at 125.04. The thesis played out on the target, even though the stock finished below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2025-09-12, Investors Business Daily reported that Arista had forecast 20% fiscal 2026 revenue growth to 10.5 billion at its analyst day. On 2025-11-04, Investors Business Daily reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of 0.75 per share and revenue of 2.308 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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