Track record · closed signal

Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) — closed signal from August 27, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 25, 2025 — -4.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CAG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$18.57 Published $20.93 Target $17.74 Window close $19.20 Peak
$18.00 – $18.48Entry zone — fair-value band
$18.57Published — price the day we called it
$20.93Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$19.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$17.74Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 22% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-4.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+3.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$17.74
last close inside the window, ended November 25, 2025
Peak price
$19.20
peak on September 11, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published August 27, 2025

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$20.93
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$18.00 – $18.48
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$18.57
published August 27, 2025
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Conagra looks like a steady pick that could rebound soon. Our value estimate is about $35.99, much higher than today's price, and a lawsuit was dismissed on 2025-08-25, removing a worry. The stock appears beaten down, and investors may rotate back to everyday food names as the company discusses new snack ideas. Buying near $18.75-$19.25 targets a 0-3 month bounce while watching sales volumes and cost execution.

Primary drivers

  • Cash-flow math says the stock looks much cheaper than it should
  • A lawsuit was dismissed on 2025-08-25, removing a lingering investor worry
  • Shares look beaten down, which can set up a near-term bounce for buyers
  • Everyday foods hold steady, with new snack ideas helping growth

How it played out

CAG: target was not reached

Lyra published CAG at $18.57 on 2025-08-27, looking for 15% growth in a short-term window. The thesis pointed to cash-flow value, a lawsuit dismissed on 2025-08-25, beaten-down shares, everyday-food demand, and new snack ideas. The stated target was $20.93.

Inside the window, CAG peaked at $19.20 on 2025-09-11, a 3.3% gain. It never reached the target. By 2025-11-25, it ended at $17.74. The thesis partly played out early, but the target missed and the signal closed below the published price.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-01, Conagra reported fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings of 39 cents a share and sales of $2.63 billion. The same report said revenue fell 5.8% and management kept its full-year organic sales outlook at down 1% to up 1%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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