Track record · closed signal

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN) — closed signal from August 27, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 25, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

ALSN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$87.42 – $89.40Entry zone — fair-value band

$88.95Published — price the day we called it

$104.61Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$90.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$87.84Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 13% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$90.97

peak on September 11, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+2.3%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$87.84

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

August 27, 2025 – November 25, 2025

The thesis — published August 27, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$104.61

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$87.42 – $89.40

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$88.95

published August 27, 2025

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Allison looks like a solid, fairly priced business that is starting to get fresh interest. A recent note called it a decent value (price about 10 times earnings) and praised its strong profits. Buying activity has picked up and the recent average price is trending up, which often leads to gains in the next few months. Buying around $88-$90 aims for a move back toward recent highs if the company keeps executing.

Primary drivers

Aug 23, 2025 note called it a decent value, at about 10x earnings.
More buyers than usual and the recent average price is climbing.
Strong profits make investors more willing to pay a higher price.
Demand for trucks and buses is improving, helping future sales.

How it played out

ALSN: thesis missed the target inside the window

Lyra published ALSN on 2025-08-27 at $88.95 for a short-term window through 2025-11-25. The thesis expected 18% growth and pointed to a decent value at about 10x earnings, stronger buyer interest, a rising recent average price, strong profits, and improving demand for trucks and buses.

Inside the window, ALSN peaked at $90.97 on 2025-09-11, for a 2.3% gain. It stayed below the $104.61 target and never reached it. The stock ended the window at $87.84. The thesis did not play out on the published target, though the price did make a small early move higher.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ALSN signals