Track record · closed signal

Antero Resources Corporation (AR) — closed signal from August 27, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 25, 2025 — +7.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$30.50 – $31.75Entry zone — fair-value band

$31.61Published — price the day we called it

$40.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$35.93Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$34.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 49% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+7.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+13.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$34.00

last close inside the window, ended November 25, 2025

Peak price

$35.93

peak on November 20, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published August 27, 2025

Predicted growth

+28%

over the measurement window

Target price

$40.46

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$30.50 – $31.75

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$31.61

published August 27, 2025

Confidence

77%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Antero looks like a solid Energy pick because its business is strong and the mood in energy stocks recently improved (2025-08-20). Oversupply headlines (2025-08-19) are a known risk, but Antero's low costs help. Recent buying interest and better sentiment suggest a near-term upswing. Consider buying around $30.50-$31.75 for a possible 0-3 month move toward earlier price highs as gas prices steady and automatic buying from investment funds returns.

Primary drivers

Energy stocks rose on 2025-08-20, showing better mood across the sector.
Buying picked up noticeably, hinting the trend may be turning upward.
Costs and finances look better than many rivals, adding stability and upside.
Extra gas supply is a risk, but the firm's low costs help cushion the impact.

How it played out

AR: price rose, but the target was not reached

Lyra published AR on 2025-08-27 at $31.61 with expected growth of 28% over a 0-3 month window. The thesis pointed to better energy-sector mood on 2025-08-20, stronger buying interest, lower costs and finances versus rivals, and the risk that extra gas supply could weigh on the setup.

Inside the 2025-08-27 to 2025-11-25 window, AR rose but never reached $40.46. It peaked at $35.93 on 2025-11-20, with a peak gain of 13.7%, then ended at $34. The thesis partially played out because the stock moved up, but the published target missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AR signals