Track record · closed signal

Antero Resources Corporation (AR) — closed signal from August 27, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 25, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

AR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$31.61 Published $40.46 Target $34.00 Window close $35.93 Peak
$30.50 – $31.75Entry zone — fair-value band
$31.61Published — price the day we called it
$40.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$35.93Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$34.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 49% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$35.93
peak on November 20, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+13.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$34.00
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 27, 2025 – November 25, 2025

The thesis — published August 27, 2025

Predicted growth
+28%
over the measurement window
Target price
$40.46
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$30.50 – $31.75
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$31.61
published August 27, 2025
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Antero looks like a solid Energy pick because its business is strong and the mood in energy stocks recently improved (2025-08-20). Oversupply headlines (2025-08-19) are a known risk, but Antero's low costs help. Recent buying interest and better sentiment suggest a near-term upswing. Consider buying around $30.50-$31.75 for a possible 0-3 month move toward earlier price highs as gas prices steady and automatic buying from investment funds returns.

Primary drivers

  • Energy stocks rose on 2025-08-20, showing better mood across the sector.
  • Buying picked up noticeably, hinting the trend may be turning upward.
  • Costs and finances look better than many rivals, adding stability and upside.
  • Extra gas supply is a risk, but the firm's low costs help cushion the impact.

How it played out

AR: price rose, but the target was not reached

Lyra published AR on 2025-08-27 at $31.61 with expected growth of 28% over a 0-3 month window. The thesis pointed to better energy-sector mood on 2025-08-20, stronger buying interest, lower costs and finances versus rivals, and the risk that extra gas supply could weigh on the setup.

Inside the 2025-08-27 to 2025-11-25 window, AR rose but never reached $40.46. It peaked at $35.93 on 2025-11-20, with a peak gain of 13.7%, then ended at $34. The thesis partially played out because the stock moved up, but the published target missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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