Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — closed signal from August 26, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 24, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 10 days.
The thesis — published August 26, 2025
Broadcom's price has fallen quickly, but investor mood is steady and more shares are trading than usual, which can point to a short-term bounce. New VMware software built to work with AI makes customers more likely to stay, helping the longer story. Still, recent trend signs are weak and the company's basics are mixed, so any rebound could be fragile. If chip stocks keep leading, a move over the next 0-3 months toward the next price hurdle is possible.
Primary drivers
- Price dropped fast; trading is heavier than usual, hinting at a bounce
- New VMware release built for AI could deepen customer loyalty and usage
- Chip stocks leading the market could help Broadcom's shares recover
- Recent trend still weak, so manage risk and keep expectations realistic
How it played out
AVGO: target reached in 10 days
Lyra published AVGO on 2025-08-26 at 294.93 with an expected gain of 12%. The thesis pointed to a fast price drop, heavier trading, steady investor mood, VMware software built for artificial intelligence, and chip-stock leadership. It also said the recent trend was weak, so any rebound could be fragile.
Inside the window, AVGO reached the 329.13 target in 10 days. The peak was 385.74 on 2025-10-29, a 30.8% gain. It ended the window at 377.24. The thesis played out, and the move went beyond the target.
What happened during the window
On September 4, 2025, Broadcom reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $15.95 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.69 per share. On October 13, 2025, Broadcom and a customer announced a multi-year plan to co-develop 10 gigawatts of custom accelerators and rack systems.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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